I had a whale of a client start brokering and consigning this brand with me earlier this year so I started to learn about them. I had heard of them when I started trading in 2019 but never really saw them get traded regularly in years past by really anyone. I have recently started to see several NTQ for ALS come from top traders and seen a couple dealers start to regularly have these in inventory so I thought I’d write this up to educate you guys.
My whale client already gets amazing AD allocations from Rolex, AP, and Patek, but cannot get good ones for ALS which is why he came to me to source what he couldn’t get.
The brand is most similar to Patek or Vacheron in its clientele and offerings IMO. A lot of dress watches that trade under MSRP and just a handful of sports models that sell over MSRP as well as hyper scarcity plays that trade over MSRP. It’s similar to Patek & Vacheron in that it has a surprisingly wide range of offerings from 15k dress watches to 150k+ dress watches and not really short on buyers around 100k either. This is anecdotal, but I think their more expensive models are actually more sought after. In the same way you would rather buy and sell a Porsche GT3RS, GT2RS, and turbo S vs Caymans and Macans.
This brand is famous for its ornate movements and engineering, so it strikes me as the brand for people that already have Rolex, Patek, and AP and now that they have the hot stuff, are getting into “real” high horology. That means these guys are hard to get but they are otherwise monster clients. The demographic definitely skews older as well, my client is 70, and the people that call me on these watches have regularly been 70 so far. Mainly doctors and lawyers.
Models to Know:
Sports Models:
Odysseus Stainless Steel
2x MSRP right now at 50-60k. I sourced for 55k sold for 60k in the summer, prices down a bit now.
Odysseus Titanium
only 250 in the world, 2x MSRP, I sourced for 110k sold for 125k. The dealer I bought it from sat on it for 6 months. Very strange combo. Bought and sold this early fall. Hyper scarcity play.
Odysseus White Gold
only comes on rubber strap, sells for under MSRP.
Dress Watches:
Saxonia / Lange 1 / Datograph
More expensive holds better because it’s rarer. My 100k MSRP datograph sold retail at 70% of MSRP. My 33k MSRP gold saxonia sold retail for 66% of MSRP + tax so basically 70%. Hold time on the 100k watch was 15 days, less than 7 if you don’t include the week before the election where no one buys anything, plenty of views and several messages, hold time on the 33k watch was 42 days by comparison.
Zeitwerk
Probably what they’re really well-known for as a unique design created by this brand. Most models are trading well-under MSRP
Richard Lange
I don’t know enough about this model so I can’t say.
So really only the odysseus regularly goes over MSRP. However, for the saxonia, datograph, zeitwerk when you get into NUMBERED special editions, the rarity puts them over MSRP. Several models are like 1 of 250, 1 of 25, etc. and not in the Hublot kind of way. For example, if a platinum model sells fine at 70% of MSRP, the numbered special editions are over MSRP usually.
Probably the most premium is their “lumen” models which are basically skeleton movements with lume beneath the dial. When an under MSRP model has a lumen version, it seems to trade 1.5x MSRP. That’s a big jump if you think about it.
Only 8 ADs in the US:
LA, San Francisco, Aspen, Vegas, Houston, Miami, NYC, and Boston.
Amazing resource for deep research on the brand:
(They resell Lange as well, I do not know them and cannot vouch for their business but the info on ALS watches is solid).
I wrote this up for you guys because I can’t believe the interest my 80k ALS listing got compared to even a white gold daytona both listed the same day, I was really surprised as I thought the ALS would sit forever.
But I want to be clear.
I’m not saying I recommend the brand, I’m not saying WTA endorses the brand. I’m currently experimenting with it and keeping you guys in the loop. What I’m choosing to inventory, what I’m willing to pay, and how I’m facilitating deals on this brand currently is based on the fact that I’m experimenting with the brand.
I would treat it the same as FP Journe. Just like with FPJ there’s speculation that eventually ALS becomes more and more like Patek, Rolex, etc. in this next up market but I wouldn’t hold my breath. It’s niche, but the opportunity in niche comes at the cost of liquidity so it makes sense for certain trader portfolios who need more diversity and have these higher end clients. Dress watches in general are not as popular as sports models, let alone dress watches from a non-market based brand like ALS.
My Trading Strategy
My strategy around this in the long-term will be holding those rarer models where when a buyer wants one, you effectively get to name your price. This is a great strategy for collectors if you can buy one from someone that needs liquidity or when supply is abnormally high and then sell to someone who wants it more than you do. As long as you don’t become the one that needs to liquidate yourself. As a trader, it would make sense if you have excess capital to park in something you don’t mind holding. I see utility in these as “BCV based” models and hyper scarcity plays at much higher price points than traders normally go after. The money is a lot less liquid but the value is more stable and predictable, but at a higher price point–this is great for those of you that have abundant capital and don’t have time to stock cheap pieces in order to run a more efficient business or collection. So if you’re at the stage where you’re only stocking Rolex, Patek, AP and your only BCV watches are Hublot and Ulysse Nardin because you can’t think of anything else to stock I’d consider adding something like this gradually as a higher priced BCV based watch where the client will likely buy your Patek and Rolex too. I wouldn’t buy these under 20k, those models at those price points just aren’t interesting enough. More complicated models seem to do better.
— Lange Lord, Mohi Ahmed